Global Traders Guidance Sheet: EUR/USD Week of April 27 – May 3, 2025
- April 27, 2025
- Posted by: Drglenbrown1
- Category: Forex Trading / Market Analysis
1. Weekly Outlook & Bias
- Structural Bias: Bullish (Daily close above Value-Zone inner band; strong trend confluence).
- Fair-Value (Daily): 1.1067 (± 0.0702 → [1.0365–1.1769]); current close (~1.1361) is ~2.7% above FV, well within the fair-value zone.
- Key Technical Drivers:
- Envelope clusters (EMA 26/50 ± √P·ATR) held rallies & pullbacks.
- ADX (25) on Daily at ~37 (rising).
- PATS Trend & MACD flipped to “Trend/Up” on D1.
- DIGI-RSI/Stoch signaled oversold→bullish on lower TFs around April 7.
- Force Index & Bulls/Bears indicators showing fresh buying pressure.
2. Key Levels for the Week
| Level | Price | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Daily Inner Envelope | ~1.1300 | Dynamic medium-term support (EMA 26+√26·ATR26) |
| Daily EMA 26 | ~1.1230 | Trend filter / wider stop |
| Daily Outer Envelope | ~1.1420 | First profit-taking barrier |
| Daily EMA 50 | ~1.1120 | Long-term trend guard |
| Fair-Value Midpoint (FV) | 1.1067 | Central “true” value |
| Fair-Value Band | [1.0365–1.1769] | Extreme valuation thresholds |
3. Multi-Timeframe Execution Plan
A. Daily (D1)
- Bias: Long only so long as daily close > 1.1300.
- Entries:
- Close above prior day’s high (~1.1361)
- Shallow retest into 1.1300–1.1320 that holds
- Stops:
- Tight: just below 1.1300
- Wider: below 1.1230 (EMA 26)
- Targets:
- 50% at 1.1420 (Daily outer envelope)
- Remainder to mid-month high (~1.1570) or fair-value upper band (1.1769)
B. 4-Hour (H4)
- Entry Zone: H4 inner band (~1.1330)
- Confirmation:
- H4 close above inner band
- ADX(25) ≥ 15 and green PATS_MACD
- DIGI-Stoch “Bullish Start” on H4
- Stops: below H4 inner lower (~1.1290)
- Partial Exits:
- 50% at H4 outer lower (~1.1375)
- 25% at H4 outer upper (~1.1420)
- Trail: to H4 inner band on pullbacks
C. 1-Hour (M60)
- Entry: Bullish M60 close off inner envelope (~1.1335–1.1345) with:
- M60 PATS_MACD green
- ADX(25) ≥ 15
- RSI > 50 or DIGI-Stoch signal
- Stop: just below inner band (~1.1330)
- Targets:
- TP1 at outer envelope (~1.1400)
- TP2 at static resistance (~1.1425)
D. 30-Minute (M30)
- Precision Trigger:
- Retrace into M30 inner band (~1.1340–1.1360)
- Bullish engulfing/hammer off band + M30 PATS_MACD green + DIGI-Stoch “Bullish Start”
- Stop: just below inner lower (~1.1330)
- Micro-Targets:
- 25% at inner upper (~1.1370)
- 25% at EMA 50 (≈1.1400)
- Trail: move SL to breakeven, then to higher-TF inner bands
4. Fair-Value Recap
- FV: 1.1067
- FV_band: [1.0365⇢1.1769]
- Current vs FV: +2.7% above
- Implication: Mild over-extension—space to run higher but watch for mean-reversions toward ~1.1150–1.1200 (inner band).
5. Fundamental Calendar & Catalysts Investopedia
| Date & Time (GMT) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Apr 28 | Spanish Unemployment Rate (Apr) | Medium |
| Tue Apr 29 08:30 | German GfK Consumer Confidence (May) | Low |
| US Q1 GDP Advance (QoQ) | High | |
| Wed Apr 30 07:00 | Eurozone Final CPI (Apr) / Core CPI | High |
| US PCE Price Index (Apr) / Core PCE Price | High | |
| Thu May 1 14:00 | Eurozone Q1 GDP Advance (QoQ) | High |
| US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | Medium | |
| Fri May 2 13:30 | US Non-farm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate (Apr) | High |
| German Industrial Production (MoM, Mar) | Medium |
Macro View:
– U.S. growth & inflation data (GDP, PCE, NFP) will heavily influence Fed-USD bias.
– Eurozone CPI & GDP will guide ECB policy outlook.
– Trade tensions & tariff headlines remain a wildcard.
6. Weekly Workflow
- Pre-Open (Asia): Confirm D1 close vs inner envelope; note FXLive open levels (≈1.1366).
- London Open: Look for H4/M60 pullback into inner bands; watch German data (08:00–09:00 GMT).
- U.S. Session: React to US GDP/PCE releases (08:30–14:00 GMT) – adjust bias on surprises.
- End-of-Week: Manage trailing stops; consider rolling or scaling into NFP reaction.
Summary:
EUR/USD remains in a well-defined uptrend across all major timeframes, trading above its daily value zone. We’ll seek long entries on pullbacks into dynamic inner-envelope support (1.1300–1.1345) with clear multi-TF confirmation. Key fundamental releases (US GDP, PCE, NFP; Eurozone CPI, GDP) will act as trend accelerators or caution flags.
About the Author
Dr. Glen Brown is President & CEO of Global Accountancy Institute, Inc. and Global Financial Engineering, Inc. With over 25 years of experience in investments, risk management, and proprietary trading, he’s the architect of the Global Algorithmic Trading Software (GATS) framework and the Global 9-Tier Trading System. Dr. Brown holds a Ph.D. in Investments & Finance, has authored numerous market-insight articles, and leads a closed-door proprietary trading desk that applies advanced ATR-based risk models, multi-timeframe envelope strategies, and AI-driven sentiment analysis to capture consistent alpha across asset classes.
Risk Disclaimer
This material is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading in foreign exchange, futures, equities, and other derivatives carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should independently evaluate any information, opinion, or analysis and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decision. Neither Dr. Glen Brown nor Global Accountancy Institute, Inc. assumes any liability for losses incurred as a result of using the guidance provided herein.